More and more investors are convinced that the forthcoming launch of anticovid vaccines, especially the US ones, could bring the price of the dollar down. If the medium-term dollar forecasts indicate a bearish phase, the gold forecasts instead indicate a possible rise in 2021, as well as for oil.
Analysts are increasingly convinced that there will soon be major changes in the markets, due to the launch of Covid vaccines rather than Biden’s economic policy: the S&P 500 forecasts indicate a rally to 4,100 points, at the same time many are convinced that it will be a collapse of the dollar until it touches the lows of 2018. But that’s not all: if the pssible return to a (new) normality should certainly be good for oil, there should also be positive confirmations for gold, even if not immediately.
Dollar forecast: collapse at the launch of anti-Covid vaccines?
Many investors have diversified their portfolios during these months of lockdown, rightly betting on technology stocks and forex. But for the next few months they could drop the big currencies and rush to invest in stocks. In particular, in the pharmaceutical giants engaged in the distribution of vaccines such as Pfizer and BiONTech, but also on AstraZeneca and the other companies currently competing for the validation of their products.
Some brands are flying on the stock exchanges with the announcement of being able to deliver fifty million doses of the vaccine by December and 1.3 billion in 2021. If the effectiveness of vaccines were confirmed, the economic recovery would be very fast in all sectors and in all Countries most affected. Provided that the distribution of doses is just as fast.
This is why it could also be profitable to go long on currencies such as the rupee, the Mexican peso, or buy stocks in euros and Canadian and Australian dollars. In any case, analysts recommend short positions on the dollar, both for a shift in investor interest and for medium-long term macroeconomic changes.
Gold forecast: 2021 fundamental year
After breaking through $ 2,000 this summer, the price of gold has settled at around $ 1,800-1900, with a slight drop following announcements of the imminent launch of anti-Covid treatments. But regular investors haven’t worried too much: the markets will turn their backs to catch the flare-ups on the most promising stocks of the post-lockdown, but new rallies will occur in 2021 and 2022.
Indeed, gold price forecasts indicate that already after the New Year, prices could return above $ 2,000 an ounce: the yellow metal is in fact continuing to benefit from the reduced demand for the US dollar, and several observers, such as analysts from ANZ Bank, predict that gold could even reach the level of $ 2,300 an ounce in the very first part of 2021.
Oil forecasts: calm is about to return
However, the first beneficiary of the global economy that rekindles the engines would be oil. It is not for nothing that crude oil price has risen last week and oil companies are cleaning the taps, in anticipation of sensational reopening. Among the favorites Marathon Petroleum, HollyFrontier and Valero Energy. Surely not everything will return to the way it was before the pandemic (see article How markets will change due to the Covid crisis: analysis and advice for investors), but there will certainly be positive changes.
For example, among the sectors that will soon pour a river of money will be air transport, tourism and travel. Among the stocks that will recover quickly, according to the forecasts of various investment houses, are Carnival, Marriott International, Booking, United Airlines Holding, Delta Air Lines, Expedia Inc and Walt Disney.